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Microsoft

Down 0.3 since 18 Oct, rising over 30 days (Direction ▲ 2.4). Latest driver: Microsoft launches new Copilot version with coding and editing features.

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Strongest onTrust, safety and privacy2nd

Lags onCapabilitybelow all 13Value13thEcosystem12th

Score47.4▼ 0.3 since 18 Oct

Strength47.0Eight pillars

Direction▲ 2.4Last 30 days

Confidence medium79% of its indicators measured and fresh

Score over time

ScoreStrength

57 daily closes, the earlier ones reconstructed. Download CSV

The eight pillars

Each pillar 0 to 100 on fixed goalposts, with its rank among the 13 ranked labs. The tick marks the median lab; points are what the pillar adds to Strength.

Capability20below all 1343+8.5

Usage and adoption168th26+4.2

Release execution610th55+3.3

Value1513th15+2.2

Ecosystem1112th40+4.4

Reception48th52+2.1

Reliability1110th98+10.8

Trust, safety and privacy172nd68+11.6

Since 18 Oct

Score down 0.3 (47.7 to 47.4). Usage and adoption −0.2.

What was measuredAll 25 readings behind this close, with source, date and goalposts

Filled: no fresh reading, so the ranked labs' median was used. Carried: a source that keeps no history, read later.

Indicator	Reading	Scaled	Goalposts	As of
Arena text rating Arena (arena.ai) text leaderboard: rating of the lab's best model with 1,000 votes or more	1256.3 phi-4	2	1250 to 1550 rating	13 Oct
Benchmarks Epoch AI Benchmarking Hub: the lab's best score on each of GPQA Diamond, FrontierMath tiers 1 to 3, SWE-bench Verified and OTIS Mock AIME, each placed between fixed goalposts, averaged; runs from the last 365 days, at least 3 of the 4	GPQA diamond 56.1% (phi-4); OTIS Mock AIME 2024-2025 13.8% (phi-4): filled with the median	83	already 0 to 100
Paid adoption Published spend and paid-use evidence, latest edition of each: Ramp AI Index (share of US businesses paying the vendor, monthly), Menlo Ventures (enterprise API spend share), a16z CIO survey (share of LLM wallet), ICONIQ (share of AI builders using the provider), each placed on its own scale and averaged by weight; facts and sources at /data/adoption.json	0 Menlo Ventures, State of Generative AI in the Enterprise (2025-12): not named, below its threshold; a16z enterprise CIO survey (2026-01): not named, below its threshold	0	already 0 to 100	19 Oct
Assistant users Users of the lab's assistants (chat apps and coding agents) as the lab or its parent last disclosed them, or a panel measurement (QuestMobile) where a lab discloses none; weekly figures count as monthly (a lower bound); dated by disclosure, and only disclosures from the last 12 months count; not applicable to a lab with no figure; facts and sources at /data/assistants.json	150000000 Copilot family: our first party family of Copilots now has surpassed 150 million monthly active users (Satya Nadella, FY26 Q1 call, 2025-10-29)	66	1 million to 2 billion monthly users	19 Oct
Web traffic Cloudflare Radar: the lab's best rank among the top 20 generative-AI services by traffic, 21 minus the rank	14 GitHub Copilot #7 among generative-AI services	70	0 to 20 rank points	19 Oct
API spend share OpenRouter rankings: the lab's share of all dollars spent on OpenRouter in the last 30 days, across every model (not token volume, which cheap bulk models dominate)	0.0322 0.0% of $104.4M spent on OpenRouter in 30 days (13 models)	3	0% to 35% of spend	11 Oct
App charts App Store top free charts in 7 countries	11.9 JP #61, GB #58	12	0 to 100 chart points	19 Oct
Coding agent downloads npm and PyPI downloads of the lab's official coding agents (such as Claude Code, Codex, Gemini CLI, Qwen Code, Mistral Vibe), last 30 days; not applicable to a lab with none; standalone IDEs without public counts (such as Antigravity) are not seen	No official coding agent with public download counts		10 thousand to 100 million a month
Coding extension installs VS Code Marketplace: installs of the lab's official coding extensions; not applicable to a lab with none	No official coding extension on the VS Code Marketplace		100 thousand to 50 million installs
SDK downloads PyPI and npm downloads of the official SDKs, last 30 days	Not applicable		100 thousand to 1 billion a month
Open-model downloads Hugging Face downloads of the lab's models, last 30 days	36108089 microsoft	71	10 thousand to 1 billion a month	19 Oct
Shipping cadence Vikshy Wire: confirmed launches and updates of materiality 2 or more, last 90 days	6 6 confirmed launches and updates in 90 days	45	0 to 30 in 90 days	19 Oct
Biggest launch Vikshy Wire: the biggest launch in the last 90 days, fading with age	3.47	69	materiality 0 to 5	19 Oct
Rating per dollar Arena rating of the lab's best-value model, less 30 points for each doubling of its blended list price (3 parts input to 1 part output), with prices below $0.30 per million counted as $0.30	1308.4 phi-4: 1256 at $0.09/M blended	15	1250 to 1650 points	13 Oct
Cloud availability Amazon Bedrock, Google Cloud and Microsoft Foundry: whether each offers the lab's current models as a managed, pay-per-use API (the flagship or the model one step behind it counts 1, an older generation only 0.5, open-weight side lines 0), dated by availability; facts and sources at /data/distribution.json	1 Microsoft Foundry: MAI-Thinking-1	33	0 to 3 platforms	19 Oct
Open-weight hosts OpenRouter: distinct providers serving the lab's open-weight models; not applicable to a lab that publishes none (a closed model's reach is its cloud availability)	2 Novita, DeepInfra	17	1 to 60 providers	19 Oct
Developer interest Hugging Face likes on the lab's models	58275 microsoft	71	1 thousand to 316 thousand likes	19 Oct
Hacker News Hacker News points on stories about the lab, last 30 days	461 6 stories; top: Microsoft abandons personal AI chatbot race with Copilot reboot (157)	60	0 to 30,000 points	19 Oct
Press and analysts Vikshy Wire: press and analyst pieces on the lab's developments, last 30 days	10	41	0 to 60 pieces	19 Oct
Official API uptime The lab's own status page: 30-day uptime of the components that make up its model API, counting major outages in full and partial outages at 30%, the pages' own formula (degraded performance is not counted); labs label outages differently, so a measured cross-check sits beside it	No fresh reading: filled with the median	98	99% to 100% over 30 days
Measured uptime OpenRouter: the median uptime of the lab's own API endpoints, an independent cross-check of the status page, the mean of daily readings over 30 days	Not applicable		90% to 100%
Independent assessments Independent assessments published by then, each put on 0 to 100: the Future of Life Institute AI Safety Index (40%), the Stanford Foundation Model Transparency Index (30%) and the SaferAI risk-management ratings (30%), averaged over those that cover the lab; a lab none covers is not independently assessed, and filled with the median like any gap	33 1 of 3 assessments: SaferAI Risk Management Tracker (2026-07) 33	33	0 to 100	19 Oct
Customer data commitments From the lab's own documentation: API and business data not used for training by default; a zero-data-retention option; a choice of data region	3 no training on API data by default, zero data retention available, choice of data region	100	0 to 3 commitments	19 Oct
Security certifications From the lab's trust center: SOC 2 Type II, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001 (AI management) covering its model API	3 SOC 2 Type II, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001	100	0 to 3 certifications	19 Oct
Security and privacy incidents Security breaches, data leaks and regulatory privacy actions (bans, fines, orders) affecting the lab's AI services or caused by its AI systems in the last 12 months, from reputable reporting and regulators, counted once per public disclosure, and half when the lab itself disclosed harm from its AI with no legal duty to; every fact, and what was not counted and why, is at /data/trust.json	1 2026-02-18: A Microsoft 365 Copilot Chat bug summarised confidential-labelled emails despite data loss prevention policies	67	0 to 3 in 12 months, fewer is better	19 Oct

What moved Direction

The developments that count most in the last 30 days. Direction ▲ 2.4.

All 4 developments, line by line

Points for materiality, times recency, times diminishing returns (or the setback cap).

Development	Materiality	Points	Recency	Diminish or cap	Counts
Microsoft launches new Copilot version with coding and editing features 25 Sep · Flagship model launch	4	2.5	0.6	1	+1.5
Microsoft adds streaming transcription and text-to-speech models to MAI family 2 Oct · New model	2	0.75	0.71	0.36	+0.19
Microsoft opens preorders for Nvidia-powered Surface RTX Spark Dev Box 7 Oct · New product or feature	2	0.75	0.81	0.45	+0.28
Microsoft introduces Maia 300 custom AI chip 12 Oct · New product or feature	2	0.75	0.89	0.63	+0.42

Latest from Microsoft

What Microsoft shipped, broke and changed lately. The full Microsoft timeline, with every model it has released.

12 Oct
Microsoft introduces Maia 300 custom AI chipFeatures · New product or feature
7 Oct
Microsoft opens preorders for Nvidia-powered Surface RTX Spark Dev BoxFeatures · New product or feature
2 Oct
Microsoft adds streaming transcription and text-to-speech models to MAI familyModels · New model
25 Sep
Microsoft launches new Copilot version with coding and editing featuresModels · Flagship model launch
14 Sep
Microsoft publishes code of conduct for its MAI modelsMoney and policy · Policy or regulatory step
27 Jul
Microsoft launches MAI-Cyber-1-Flash security modelModels · New model

All Microsoft stories on the Wire

Score over time

The eight pillars

Since 18 Oct

What moved Direction

Latest from Microsoft

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